China imported no U.S. soybeans in September—the first monthly zero since 2018—even as its total soybean imports hit the second-highest month on record. Instead, Chinese crushers leaned on South America: Brazil supplied 85.2% (10.96m t) and Argentina 9% (1.17m t) of September arrivals. Year-to-date, China has still taken 16.8m t of U.S. beans on earlier deals, but none from the new crop so far.
Most headlines will file this as another trade-war story. The more consequential angle for the next 3–6 months is operational: how a China-light export window changes on-farm decisions, basis risk, and the unit economics of agtech across the U.S.
