The 90% Dilemma
The European Union is on the brink of enshrining a landmark climate goal for 2040 – a
90% net reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels. This “target crunch” comes to a head in late 2025 (with an EU Climate Law amendment due and a UN 2035 pledge needed by September). Hitting 90% by 2040 is incredibly ambitious, essentially putting the EU on track for near-net-zero by 2050. The big question:
how to get there. Will Europe lean more on
carbon capture and storage (CCUS) to mop up industrial emissions? Will it bank on
carbon dioxide removal (CDR) – sucking CO₂ from air or enhancing land sinks – to offset what it can’t cut? Or will a massive deployment of
green hydrogen replace fossil fuels in heavy sectors, obviating some need for capture or offsets? Each pathway has winners and losers, and Europe’s policy decisions in the next year will signal which horse it’s betting on.
“It will feel less like a single big change and more like a steady redesign of how we live and work,” said
Neil Fried, Senior Vice President, EcoATMB2B,
in response to Industry Examiner.
“You’ll see more EVs and chargers, heating powered by renewables instead of gas, and more emphasis on recycling and reuse.”The Balancing Act
In reality, the EU will need
all of the above – efficiency, renewables, electrification, plus some CCUS, some hydrogen, some removals. But the mix is under debate. The European Commission’s impact assessment lays out different scenarios: one scenario (S1) achieves 90% mainly through direct emissions cuts, minimal reliance on removals; another (S3) leans heavily on
green hydrogen and CCS to decarbonize industry and transport, plus engineered removals to handle residual emissions. A third “LIFE” scenario emphasizes demand reductions and circular economy, thus needing less hydrogen and CDR.
“Cut at source: (1) swap fossil power for renewables and grid upgrades; (2) electrify end-uses with EVs and heat pumps; (3) efficiency everywhere (buildings, motors, processes). Where capture is needed: cement and lime (process CO2 you can’t avoid), parts of steel and refining/chemicals, and some waste-to-energy plants. What removals are for: the leftovers—dispersed or hard-to-abate emissions and some legacy CO2—once the big, direct cuts are done.” said
Stephen Mayer, Director, Carbon Blue Solutions Limited LLC,
in response to Industry Examiner.
» Read More
